I really thought all Air Force Blue had to do was turn up yesterday and I was feeling a little smug with my 5/1 antepost bet on him. But the odds on Ballydoyle favourite flopped and reminded me what a leveller gambling can be.
3.40 Newmarket – 1,000 Guineas 1 Mile
I tipped Minding on Facebook last year at 9/2 and she is currently 13/8 with Powers & Skybet. I am happy with my bet not just because of the price difference but I still think that she is head and shoulders better than the field.
4.50 Newmarket – Listed 1 Mile 2 Furlongs
John Gosden has won this Oaks trial race for the last two years with Jazzi Top & Taghrooda. This year entry Swiss Range has entries in the Ribblesdale & Coronation Cup at Ascot.
Very highly thought of by connections and could very well land Frankie Dettori his second black type race this weekend!
I got 5/2 with Paddy Power before the snooker started but the price has since come down.
Swiss Range – 2/1 Powers, Betfair Sportsbook & Betvictor
5.30 Punchestown – 2 Miles Grade 1
My Tent Or Yours finished 2nd to Annie Powe at the Cheltenham Festival and followed that up with another 2nd at Aintree 3 weeks ago. His last run was over 2m4f and the drop back down to 2 miles should suit.
My Tent Or Yours (2nd Fav)- 2/1 Paddy Powers (3.00)
(MBS – Money Back If 2nd To The SP Favourite)
There are five one sided matches tonight and I wouldn’t be putting off anyone for backing all 5 favourites to win tonight at 15/2.
Peter Wright v Phil Taylor
Peter, my ‘Mr Consistent’ has been poor the last few weeks as I know as he has cost me money. He has played with the same darts two weeks running and has been steady on the 180 bed but not finishing well.
Phil is top of the table and playing really well this year but strangely enough he has beaten every player apart from Peter in the premier league and I think that will change tonight!
LAY Wright – 5.00 (4/1)
LAY Taylor To Get The Most 180s – 3.00 (2/1)
Raymond van Barneveld v Gary Anderson
Barney can’t qualify for the semi-finals and he is prone to throwing the towel in. With nothing to play for tonight I expect him not to up his game against the world champion.
LAY Barney – 4.70 (7/2)
Back All The Favourite – 13/2 BetFred (7.37)
(Money Back If 1 Leg Loses)
I can’t see Marco Fu beating both Selby and Ding so he is a lay for me.
Lay Fu at 7.60 (13/2) – Betfair Exchange
NB- Lay means not to win and can only be placed on a betting exchange such as Betfair.
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I think it’s something like 9 profitable weeks on golf out of the last 10 weeks which makes golf my most profitable sport in 2016. You can checkout the results spreadsheet here.
This year’s tournament is wide open as most of the leading players in the betting have some serious question marks about them. Fowler missed the cut in the Masters and has been spending time away from golf since. The favourite Day won two back to back tournament in March but has been poor in the next two.
His only win last year was here and with a lot of the big guns missing this week he should be there or there abouts
He is one of the new kids on the block and is shaping up to be a nice player who can be seen chewing tobacco when playing golf. Alex Ferguson used to chew the hell out of chewing gum when managing Manchester United as he found it released stress so I can see the appeal.
Daniel finished 5th and 10th in his last 2 matches and looks like a player coming in to form and at 25/1 I think he is worth trading.
Back at 10.00 (9/1)
Lay at 7.00 (6/1)
Back at 25.00 (25/1)
Lay at 20.00 (19/1)
You can only trade or back to lay on a betting exchange such as Betfair.
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We are down to one table and the tournament now has the feeling of a professional sporting event.
It has been eventful with all the kicks and bad cushion bounces on table one and it’s only a matter of time that Star tables will be getting the old heave ho and they opt for Strachan or Riley tables instead. They never really had kicks and bad bounces in the 80’s and three things have changed since then, thinner clothes, heated tables and more powerful lighting. Surely common sense must prevail here and they have to try a process of elimination to solve this as its getting ridiculous now and you have to feel for the players who lost on those tables.
Despite that I have still really enjoyed the tournament with some great matches like O’ Sullivan v Hawkins, Bingham v Carter and Perry v Wilson. If it ends up a Selby and Ding final that should be a cracker too!
Ding heads the market at 5/4 with my pre tournament selection of Mark Selby down from 23/2 to 13/8. Now I think both of these will be the finalist come Sunday but I won’t be backing them to win their semis. If Ding and Mark line up against each other I will have a big bet on Ding to win outright so I have a guaranteed profit, although I do think Mark will grind him down!
I made money in rounds 1 and 2 but came unstuck in the last round with the highest break market bets. So as they are knocking in centuries for fun and they might beat the all time centuries record in the tournament this year it, centuries have to be the way to go from here on in.
McManus v Ding (Thu 1pm)
Alan McManus got 2 centuries in his last match against John Higgins and Ding is averaging just over two per match.
Back Over 3.5 Centuries – Evens Bwin (2.00)
Fu v Selby (Fri 7pm)
Off the top of my head Fu got 2 centuries in his first 2 matches and Selby got 3 in his match against Sam Biard.
Back Over 3.5 Centuries – 23/20 Betway (2.30)
Another odds on favourite Cue Card lost yesterday in day two of the five day festival. I am sure that Douvan will buck that trend today but at odds of 1/5 it’s a race to watch rather than a race to have a bet in.
5.30 Punchestown – 3 Miles Grade 1
I am going for the 2016 English and Irish Grand National winning trainer’s Mouse Morris’s Alpha Des Obeaux here. He finished second behind one of my Cheltenham Festival naps Thistlecrack last month and came second at this festival last year to the useful Nichols Canyon.
We have seen plenty of favourites getting beat here at Punchestown who ran at both the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree as 3 races in 6 weeks can be a tough task! But Alpha Des Obeaux missed Aintree which is looking like it may well prove to be a big plus.
Alpha Des Obeaux 7/4 – Betfred & Tote