The 2016/17 season started on Sunday with the Indian Open Qualifiers, only a few weeks or so since Mark Selby won the World Championship!
I have decided to change my betting approach for this season due to so many shock performances from the top players during 2015/16 which really made a dent in my bottom line.
Neil Robertson won two back to back tournaments in November and December and then got knocked out just before Christmas in the German Masters qualifiers. Robbo was runner up to Ronnie in the Welsh Open and then had three first round exits in a row!
Ronnie O’ Sullivan was excellent in the Masters and the Welsh Open which he duly won, but those wins were bookmarked by a shock defeat in December to Stuart Carrington in the German Masters qualifiers and a round one exit in the to Michael Holt in the Grand Prix.
Shaun Murphy never reached a quarter final until when he won the World Grand Prix in March and lost in the first round six times!
Judd Trump won the China Open but went out in the first round three times last year.
Mark Selby last three tournaments were runner-up, first round loss & of course he won the World Championship. Even he can be erratic too as had another first round exit earlier in the season, but as he is the current World Champion that more than makes up for it.
Now I know they can’t win every match but you’d expect these top players not to get knocked out so early in competitions. I tend to trade the top players in the outright win markets and group them together in first round accumulators which is the main reason why I only had 20 points profit for the 2015/26 season. I could put this down to a one off season or I could change my betting approach, I am choosing the latter.
I think the reason for these shock defeats are down to the fact that standard has been raised across the board and the lesser players play the top players more often than before and no longer fear them like they used to. Most sportsmen’s seasons are geared towards playing well in the main tournaments and snooker is no different with the top tournaments of last season going to the top players. Robertson won the UK Championship, O’ Sullivan won the Masters and Selby won the World Championship.
Whatever the reasons are for the top players winning the main events, they are the tournaments to concentrate on and perhaps it would be prudent to give the other tournaments a miss.
I analysed my tips for last season and made more profit for betting in the 3 main tournaments as I did for whole of the season!
So for the 2016/17 season I will in effect change from a full-time snooker tipster to a part-time one. I will concentrate on the UK Championships (Nov/Dec), the Masters (Jan) and the World Championship (Apr/May). But I intend to trade the outright win markets on Betfair for some of the remaining tournaments.
I will paper trade outsiders to win matches in the early rounds for 2016/17 as I made money doing this in the World Championship in 2016 as this could prove more profitable than grouping a few favourites together in accumulators. If they prove worthwhile doing I will include these for 2017/18 season and should have enough tips get back to being a full-time snooker tipster, but in the meantime I am going with quality rather than quantity.